What is the most likely wind direction in los angeles?

In august 2012, tropical storm isaac formed in the caribbean and was headed for the gulf of mexico. there was an initial probability of .69 that isaac would become a hurricane by the time it reached the gulf of mexico (national hurricane center website, august 21, 2012). what was the probability that isaac would not become a hurricane but remain a tropical storm when it reached the gulf of mexico?

The earth's internal process which drives seafloor spreading is

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