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Mathematics, 15.10.2019 20:30 baxter58

Corrupted by their power, the judges running the popular game show america’s next top mathematician have been taking bribes from many of the contestants. during each of two episodes, a given contestant is either allowed to stay on the show or is kicked off. if the contestant has been bribing the judges, she will be allowed to stay with probability 1. if the contestant has not been bribing the judges, she will be allowed to stay with probability 1/3, independent of what happens in earlier episodes. suppose that 1/4 of the contestants have been bribing the judges. the same contestants bribe the judges in both rounds. (a) if you pick a random contestant who was allowed to stay during the first episode, what is the probability that she was bribing the judges? (b) if you pick a random contestant, what is the probability that she is allowed to stay during both episodes? (c) if you pick a random contestant who was allowed to stay during the first episode, what is the probability that she gets kicked off during the second episode?

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