Consider the population of voters described in example 3.6. suppose that there are n = 5000 voters in the population, 40% of whom favor jones. identify the event favors jones as a success s. it is evident that the probability of s on trial 1 is .40. consider the event b that s occurs on the second trial. then b can occur two ways: the first two trials are both successes or the first trial is a failure and the second is a success. show that p(b) = .4. what is p(b| the first trial is s)? does this conditional probability differ markedly from p(b)?

Step-by-step explanation:

We know that P( S ) = 0.4

Probability of occurance of event B can be calculated as follows

This probability consists of two elements

1 ) Probability of first two trial becoming successful

= .4 x .4 = .16

2 )  a )    Probability  of first trial becoming failure =  1-.4

= 0.6

b ) probability of second trial becoming success = .4

Probability of occurance of both a ) and b ) event simultaneously one after another.

= 0.6 x 0.4

.24

Total probability of .first two trials becoming  both successes or the first trial is a failure and the second is a success is

.16+ .24 = .4

Hence

P(B) = .4

the answer is two. hope this !

d is the answer

step-by-step explanation: