Police often set up sobriety checkpoints--roadblocks where drivers are asked a few brief questions to allow the officer to judge whether or not the person may have been drinking. If the officer does not suspect a problem, drivers are released to go on their way. Otherwise, drivers are detained for a Brethalyzer test that will determine whether or not they will be arrested. The police say that based on the brief intial stop, trained officers can make the right decision 80% of the time. Suppose the police operate a sobriety checkpoint after 9p. m. on a Saturday night, a time when national traffic experts suspect that 12% of drivers have been drinking.

a) You are stopped at the checkpoint and, of course, have not been drinking. What's the probability that you are detained for further testing?
b) What's the probability that any given driver will be detained?
c) What's the probability that a driver who is detained has actually been drinking?
d) What's the probability that a driver who was released had actually been drinking?

c) yes, because of asa or aas

i think the answer is b

i think it's eleven too, don't woosh me here, but according to the "experts" it's 2.

the proof starts from the peano postulates, which define the natural

numbers n. n is the smallest set satisfying these postulates:

  p1.   1 is in n.

  p2.   if x is in n, then its "successor" x' is in n.

  p3.   there is no x such that x' = 1.

  p4.   if x isn't 1, then there is a y in n such that y' = x.

  p5.   if s is a subset of n, 1 is in s, and the implication

      (x in s => x' in s) holds, then s = n.

then you have to define addition recursively:

  def: let a and b be in n. if b = 1, then define a + b = a'

      (using p1 and p2). if b isn't 1, then let c' = b, with c in n

      (using p4), and define a + b = (a + c)'.

then you have to define 2:

  def:   2 = 1'

2 is in n by p1, p2, and the definition of 2.

theorem:   1 + 1 = 2

proof: use the first part of the definition of + with a = b = 1.

      then 1 + 1 = 1' = 2   q.e.d.

note: there is an alternate formulation of the peano postulates which

replaces 1 with 0 in p1, p3, p4, and p5. then you have to change the

definition of addition to this:

  def: let a and b be in n. if b = 0, then define a + b = a.

      if b isn't 0, then let c' = b, with c in n, and define

      a + b = (a + c)'.

you also have to define 1 = 0', and 2 = 1'. then the proof of the

theorem above is a little different:

proof: use the second part of the definition of + first:

      1 + 1 = (1 + 0)'

      now use the first part of the definition of + on the sum in

      parentheses:   1 + 1 = (1)' = 1' = 2   q.e.d.