There are four aces in a 52-card deck of playing cards. Prior to drawing a card from the deck, Mickey Mouse estimates the chance that he will draw an ace and win a prize. Over a series of trials, he did not draw an ace, so he replaced the card he had drawn, shuffled the deck, and drew a card. The graph above shows his estimates of how likely it was that he would draw an ace on the next trial. The pattern of Mickey Mouse’s thinking reflects what psychological phenomenon? Group of answer choices

Reasoning by analogy

Mental set

Gambler’s fallacy

Flynn effect

Availability heuristic