Phillip witt, president of witt input devices, wishes to create a portfolio of local suppliers for his new line of keyboards. as the suppliers all reside in a location prone to hurricanes, tornadoes, flooding, and earthquakes, phillip believes that the probability in any year of a "super-event" that might shut down all suppliers at the same time at least 2 weeks is 4%. such a total shutdown would cost the company approximately $450 comma 000. he estimates the "unique-event" risk for any of the suppliers to be 5%. assuming that the marginal cost of managing an additional supplier is $16 comma 000 per year, how many suppliers should witt input devices use? assume that up to three nearly identical local suppliers are available.

a manufacturer of printed circuit boards uses exponential smoothing with trend to forecast monthly demand of its product. at the end of december, the company wishes to forecast sales for january. the estimate of trend through november has been 200 additional boards sold per month. average sales have been around 1000 units per month. the demand for december was 1100 units. the company uses α = 0.20 and β = 0.10. make a forecast including trend for the month of january.

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