A local restaurant has recorded the demand for bottled water in each of the last 15 months of business. Use the recorded demand data below to develop three-period and four-period moving-average forecasts for bottles of water.
Round off all calculations to two decimal places. Maintaining two decimal places is required for all calculations.
Period
Demand
Period
Demand
Period
Demand
1
890
6
890
11
870
2
910
7
960
12
860
3
905
8
895
13
900
4
850
9
910
14
940
5
860
10
905
15
925
1) What is the forecast for period 16 using the three-period weighted method?
(Weights are t=0.5, t-1=0.4 and t-2=0.1)
A) Less than or equal to 890
B) Greater than 890 but less than or equal to 900
C) Greater than 900 but less than or equal to 910
D) Greater than 910 but less than or equal to 920
E) Greater than 920
2) What is the forecast for period 16 using the four-period weighted method?
(Weights are t=0.3, t-1=0.2, t-2=0.3 and t-3=0.2)
A) Less than or equal to 890
B) Greater than 890 but less than or equal to 900
C) Greater than 900 but less than or equal to 910
D) Greater than 910 but less than or equal to 920
E) Greater than 920
3) What is the MAD for the three-period weighted moving-average forecast as of period 15?
A) Less than or equal to 15.00
B) Greater than 15.00 but less than or equal to 20.00
C) Greater than 20.00 but less than or equal to 25.00
D) Greater than 25.00 but less than or equal to 30.00
E) Greater than 30.00
4) What is the MAPE for the three-period weighted moving average forecast as of period 15?
A) Less than or equal to 3.00%
B) Greater than 3.00% but less than or equal to 3.50%
C) Greater than 3.50% but less than or equal to 4.00%
D) Greater than 4.00%but less than or equal to 4.50%
E) Greater than 4.50%
5) What is the MAD for the four-period weighted moving average forecast as of period 15?
A) Less than or equal to 15.00
B) Greater than 15.00 but less than or equal to 20.00
C) Greater than 20.00 but less than or equal to 25.00
D) Greater than 25.00 but less than or equal to 30.00
E) Greater than 30.00
6) What is the MAPE for the four-period weighted moving average forecast as of period 15?
A) Less than or equal to 3.00%
B) Greater than 3.00% but less than or equal to 3.50%
C) Greater than 3.50% but less than or equal to 4.00%
D) Greater than 4.00% but less than or equal to 4.50%
E) Greater than 4.50%
7) Which forecast is the best (the three-period or four-period weighted method)?
A) The 3-period moving average is the best forecast because the MAD and MAPE are less than the 4-period moving average MAD and MAPE .
B) The 3-period moving average is the best forecast because the MAD and MAPE are greater than the 4-period moving average MAD and MAPE.
C) The 4-period moving average is the best forecast because the MAD and MAPE are less than the 3-period moving average MAD and MAPE.
D) The 4-period moving average is the best forecast because the MAD and MAPE are greater than the 3-period moving average MAD and MAPE.
Answers: 1
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