Business, 06.04.2020 06:53 nyce36

1. Problem – Forecast:

Using the from the table below, Develop 3 different forecast models for Periods 19 through 24

a. Forecast # 1: Use 2 period moving average model forecast

b. Forecast # 2: Use 3 period moving average model forecast

c. Forecast # 3: Use Exponential Smoothing Forecasting model

Calculate the MFE & MAD and APE for Periods 19 through 24 (n = 6) for all 3 Forecast.

Show all your manual calculations and formulas on the last page.

Forecast Data:

Month Period Demand

(passengers) Month Period Demand

(passengers)

Jan. 2015 8 3040 October 17 3230

February 9 3360 November 18 2960

March 10 3600 December 19 3200

April 11 4580 Jan. 2016 20 3360

May 12 4720 February 21 3590

June 13 4620 March 22 3930

July 14 4140 April 23 5710

August 15 4150 May 24 5470

September 16 3810

a. 2-period moving average model forecast for Periods 19 through 24

Month Period Demand

(passengers) 2-period forecast Forecast error Absolute deviation (APE)

Absolute Percentage

Error

September

October

November

December

Jan. 2006

February

March

April

May

Means:

b. 3-period moving average model forecast for Periods 19 through 24

Month Period Demand

(passengers) 2-period forecast Forecast error Absolute deviation (APE)

Absolute Percentage

Error

September

October

November

December

Jan. 2006

February

March

April

May

Means:

c. Develop an Exponential Smoothing Forecasting model with α = 0.35 for Periods 19 through 24. (n = 6) for the resulting forecast model. Assume your forecast for period 18 was 2900

Month Period Demand

(passengers) ESM forecast Forecast error Absolute deviation (APE)

Absolute Percentage

Error

November

December

Jan. 2006

February

March

April

May

Means:

Answers: 2

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1. Problem – Forecast:

Using the from the table below, Develop 3 different forecast mode...

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