Consider a project to supply Detroit with 20,000 tons of machine screws annually for automobile production. You will need an initial $3,000,000 investment in threading equipment to get the project started; the project will last for four years. The accounting department estimates that annual fixed costs will be $850,000 and that variable costs should be $450 per ton; accounting will depreciate the initial fixed asset investment straight-line to zero over the four-year project life. It also estimates a salvage value of $280,000 after dismantling costs. The marketing department estimates that the automakers will let the contract at a selling price of $600 per ton. The engineering department estimates you will need an initial net working capital investment of $300,000. You require a return of 18 percent and face a marginal tax rate of 38 percent on this project. Required:
a. What is the estimated OCF for this project?
b. Suppose you believe that the accounting department’s initial cost and salvage value projections are accurate only to within ±15 percent; the marketing department’s price estimate is accurate only to within ±10 percent; and the engineering department’s net working capital estimate is accurate only to within ±5 percent. What is your worst-case and best-case scenario for this project?

a) expected revenue = 20,000 tons x $600 = $12,000,000 per year

initial investment = $3,000,000 + $300,000 = $3,300,000

contribution margin per unit = $600 - $450 = $150

total contribution margin = $150 x 20,000 = $3,000,000

annual fixed costs = $850,000

depreciation expense per year = $750,000

tax rate = 38%

required return rate = 18%

after tax salvage value = $280,000 x (1 - 38%) = $173,600

NCF₀ = -$3,300,000

NCF₁ = [($3,000,000 - $850,000 - $750,000) x 0.62] + $750,000 = $1,618,000

NCF₂ = $1,618,000

NCF₃ = $1,618,000

NCF₄ = $1,618,000 + $300,000 + $173,600 = $2,091,600

NPV = $1,296,797.61

IRR = 36.36%

b) our best case scenario:

expected revenue = 20,000 tons x $660 = $13,200,000 per year

initial investment = $2,550,000 + $285,000 = $2,835,000

contribution margin per unit = $660 - $450 = $210

total contribution margin = $210 x 20,000 = $4,200,000

annual fixed costs = $850,000

depreciation expense per year = $637,500

tax rate = 38%

required return rate = 18%

after tax salvage value = $322,000 x (1 - 38%) = $199,640

NCF₀ = -$2,835,000

NCF₁ = [($4,200,000 - $850,000 - $637,500) x 0.62] + $637,500 = $2,319,250

NCF₂ = $2,319,250

NCF₃ = $2,319,250

NCF₄ = $2,319,250 + $285,000 + $199,640 = $2,803,890

NPV = $3,655,445.13

IRR = 74.34%

our worst case scenario:

expected revenue = 20,000 tons x $540 = $10,800,000 per year

initial investment = $3,450,000 + $315,000 = $3,765,000

contribution margin per unit = $540 - $450 = $90

total contribution margin = $90 x 20,000 = $1,800,000

annual fixed costs = $850,000

depreciation expense per year = $862,500

tax rate = 38%

required return rate = 18%

after tax salvage value = $238,000 x (1 - 38%) = $147,560

NCF₀ = -$3,765,000

NCF₁ = [($1,800,000 - $850,000 - $862,500) x 0.62] + $862,500 = $916,750

NCF₂ = $916,750

NCF₃ = $916,750

NCF₄ = $916,750 + $315,000 + $147,560 = $1,379,310

NPV = -$1,060,302.54

IRR = 3.56%

answer; (b) insider trading;