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Inference

Explanation:

I mean, it's not difficult.

A theory is an unproven explanation.

An inference is a guess/educated guess where you don't have all the facts.

For example, if "Bob" is caught in the kitchen with a ketchup stain on his shirt, you are inferencing that he used the ketchup.

However, if you see a ketchup bottle nearby or saw it earlier, then it is not, because you already have the facts that ketchup was used.

10 years is the answer