Mathematics, 18.09.2019 05:20 KrishnaBalaram1235

The editor of a textbook publishing company is deciding whether to publish a proposed textbook. information on previous textbooks published show that 10 % are huge successes, 20 % are modest successes, 50 % break even, and 20 % are losers. before a decision is made, the book will be reviewed. in the past, 99 % of the huge successes received favorable reviews, 60 % of the moderate successes received favorable reviews, 40 % of the break-even books received favorable reviews, and 20 % of the losers received favorable reviews. if the textbook receives a favorable review, what is the probability that it will be huge success?

Answers: 2

Show answers

Answers

Answer from: papasully1

If the textbook receives a favorable review, there is a 21.57% probability that it will be a huge success.

Step-by-step explanation:

We have the following probabilities:

-A 10% probability that the textbook is a huge success.

-A 20% probability that the textbook is a modest success.

-A 50% probability that the textbook breaks even

-A 20% probability that the textbook is a loser

-If the book is a huge success, there is a 99% probability that it receives favorable reviews.

-If the book is a moderate success, there is a 60% probability that it receives favorable reviews.

-If the book breaks even, there is a 40% probability that it receives favorable reviews.

-If the book is a loser, there is a 20% probability that it receives favorable reviews.

If the textbook receives a favorable review, what is the probability that it will be huge success?

This can be formulated as the following problem:

What is the probability of B happening, knowing that A has happened.

It can be calculated by the following formula

$P = \frac{P(B).P(A/B)}{P(A)}$

Where P(B) is the probability of B happening, P(A/B) is the probability of A happening knowing that B happened and P(A) is the probability of A happening.

So, for this problem.

What is the probability that the book is a huge success, given that it received favorable reviews?

P(B) is the probability that the book is a huge success. So:

P(B) = 0.1

P(A/B) is the probability that the book receives favorable reviews when it is a huge success. So:

P(A/B) = 0.99

P(A) is the probability that the book receives favorable reviews:

$P(A) = P_{1} + P_{2} + P_{3} + P_{4}$

$P_{1}$ is the probability that a book that is a huge success is chosen and receives favorable reviews. So:

$P_{1} = 0.1*0.99 = 0.099$

$P_{2}$ is the probability that a book that is a moderate success is chosen and receives favorable reviews. So:

$P_{2} = 0.2*0.6 = 0.12$

$P_{3}$ is the probability that a book that breaks even is chosen and receives favorable reviews. So:

$P_{3} = 0.5*0.4 = 0.20$

$P_{4}$ is the probability that a book that is a loser is chosen and receives favorable reviews. So:

$P_{4} = 0.20*0.20 = 0.04$

$P(A) = P_{1} + P_{2} + P_{3} + P_{4} = 0.099 + 0.12 + 0.20 + 0.04 = 0.459$

If the textbook receives a favorable review, what is the probability that it will be huge success?

$P = \frac{P(B).P(A/B)}{P(A)} = \frac{0.1*0.99}{0.459} = 0.2157$

If the textbook receives a favorable review, there is a 21.57% probability that it will be a huge success.

Answer from: Quest

Then just do it (lol)

Answer from: Quest

step-by-step explanation:

what grade level is this? need to know so i can look in my old textbooks!

Another question on Mathematics

Mathematics, 21.06.2019 21:50

Rachel is studying the population of a particular bird species in a national park. she observes every 10th bird of that species that she can find in the park. her conclusion is that the birds living in the park who belong to that species generally feed on insects. rachel's sample is . based on the sample she picked, rachel's generalization is . reset next

Answers: 1

Answer

Mathematics, 22.06.2019 01:30

Use the squared identities to simplify sin^2x cos^2x

Answers: 3

Answer

Mathematics, 22.06.2019 01:30

Acompany that makes? hair-care products had 5000 people try a new shampoo. of the 5000 ? people, 35 had a mild allergic reaction. what percent of the people had a mild allergic? reaction?

Answers: 2

Answer

Mathematics, 22.06.2019 02:00

Currently, the largest cruise ship has a tonnage of 225,282 gross tons (gt). which of the following is a reasonable estimate for the tonnage of this cruise ship? a. 2 × 10^5 gt b. 2 × 10^6 gt c. 2 × 10^-5 gt d. 2 × 10^-6 gt

Answers: 1

Answer

You know the right answer?

The editor of a textbook publishing company is deciding whether to publish a proposed textbook. info...

Questions