Imagine that you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of a mystery prize behind one of three doors: behind one door is a car; behind the other two doors are goats. you pick a door, say no. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say no. 3, which has a goat. he then says to you, "do you want to stick with door no. 1 or switch to door no. 2? " what do you do? would you stick with your original pick or switch? would either choice give you a better chance to winning the car?