Suppose that we have two urns, and urn 1 contains 2 blue tokens and 8 red tokens; urn 2 contains 12 blue tokens and 3 red tokens. answer the following: a. you pick an urn at random and draw out a token at random from that urn. given that the token is blue, what is the probability that the token came from urn 1? b. you roll a dice to determine which urn to choose: if you roll a 1 or 2 you choose urn 1, otherwise you choose urn 2. once the urn is chosen, you draw out a token at random from that urn. given that the token is blue, what is the probability that it is from urn 1?