Consider the following time series data.
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Value 24 13 20...
Mathematics, 02.03.2020 21:55 smeeden
Consider the following time series data.
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Value 24 13 20 12 19 23 15
a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?
b. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 8.
c. Use ? ? 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 8.
d. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using ? ? 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?
e. Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for ? ?0.2.
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