In Illinois and many other states, you lose your driver's license if you pick up three speeding tickets in one calendar year. For most folks with regular driving habits, the time to the next speeding ticket is an exponentially distributed random variable.

Reason: The process is memoryless in the sense that if you have gone t months from the beginning of the year without getting a speeding ticket, then the probability of getting a speeding ticket in the next s months is about the same as the probability of getting a speeding ticket s months from the beginning of the year.

Calculate the probability of getting three tickets within a 12 month period for a driver who averages one speeding ticket every 18.6 months.