According to an exit poll for an election, 55.6% of the sample size of 836 reported voting for a specific candidate. Is this enough evidence to predict who won? Test that the population proportion who voted for this candidate was 0.50 against the alternative that it differed from 0.50.

Report the test statistic and P-value and interpret the latter.

The p value is a reference value and is useful in order to take a decision for the null hypothesis is this p value is lower than a significance level given we reject the null hypothesis and otherwise we have enough evidence to fail to reject the null hypothesis.

Step-by-step explanation:

Data given and notation

n=836 represent the random sample taken

estimated proportion of interest

is the value that we want to test

represent the significance level

z would represent the statistic (variable of interest)

represent the p value (variable of interest)  

Concepts and formulas to use  

We need to conduct a hypothesis in order to test the claim that ture proportion is equal to 0.5 or no.:  

Null hypothesis:  

Alternative hypothesis:  

When we conduct a proportion test we need to use the z statistic, and the is given by:  

(1)  

The One-Sample Proportion Test is used to assess whether a population proportion is significantly different from a hypothesized value .

Calculate the statistic  

Since we have all the info requires we can replace in formula (1) like this:  

Statistical decision  

It's important to refresh the p value method or p value approach . "This method is about determining "likely" or "unlikely" by determining the probability assuming the null hypothesis were true of observing a more extreme test statistic in the direction of the alternative hypothesis than the one observed". Or in other words is just a method to have an statistical decision to fail to reject or reject the null hypothesis.  

The next step would be calculate the p value for this test.  

Since is a bilateral test the p value would be:  

The p value is a reference value and is useful in order to take a decision for the null hypothesis is this p value is lower than a significance level given we reject the null hypothesis and otherwise we have enough evidence to fail to reject the null hypothesis.

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