A tree cutting business has an insurance policy to cover any damages caused during the tree cutting process. The business pays an annual premium of $1,500 for a policy that covers up to $500,000 in damages. The probability of a tree causing damage is 0.002. What is the expected value?

  -$500

Step-by-step explanation:

The expected value of a payment from the policy is ...

  $500,000 × 0.002 = $1000

Since the business pays $1500 for the policy, the expected value to the business is ...

  $1000 - 1500 = -$500 . . . per year

Of course, the expected value to the insurance company is $500 per year.

We have computed on the basis of 1 claim per year. If we consider the possibility of multiple independent claims, then the expected payment from the insurance goes up by a factor of 1/(1 -0.002) ≈ 1.002004008016 This has the effect of increasing the expected value by $2.00 per year to -$498.