High school hurdling competition. He has a 10% chance of knocking
down a hurdle in one lap. He wants to know the probability of doing at least three laps before he
knocks a hurdle down. Which simulation can best be used to compute the probability?
A. Model D: Use a standard deck of cards. Randomly draw one card from the deck. After drawing
the card, place it back in the deck and shuffle. For one trial, draw a card from the deck three
times. Count the trial if only on the third draw, the card is an ace or a king of clubs. Repeat the
process for 200 trials.
B. Model C: Draw a tile from a bag containing ten different-colored tiles. For one trial, draw a tile,
with replacement, until the green tile is drawn. Count the trial if the green tile is drawn on the third
draw or later. Repeat the process for 200 trials.
C. Model B: Use a spinner with ten different colors of equal area. For one trial, spin the spinner
until it lands on pink. Count the trial if the spinner lands on pink on the second spin or later.
Repeat this process for 120 trials.
D. Model A: Draw a marble from a bag containing seven different colored marbles. For one trial,
draw the marbles, with replacement, until the green marble is drawn. Count the trial if the green
marble is drawn on the third draw or later. Repeat the process for 50 trials.