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Mathematics, 22.02.2021 19:00 because061907

You're a contestant on a TV gameshow where you must choose between four identical looking suitcases containing $100, $100, $300, and $400. You start by randomly picking one suitcase. The host then opens the remaining suitcase with the lowest dollar amount. Now, you have the choice to keep your current suitcase or switch to one of the two remaining suitcases. With probability p= 0.7, you keep your original suitcase and open it. Otherwise, you are equally likely to choose either of two the remaining suitcases and open it. You win the money in the suitcase you opened. Consider these events:
Ai is the event that the first suitcase you choose is worth i dollars.
Hi is the event that the host opens a suitcase worth i dollars.
Wi is the event that you win i dollars.

If you play this game five times, the probability that the event W400 occurs twice in five trials is:

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