Some electronic devices are better used than new: the failure rate is higher when they are new than when they are six months old. For example, half of the personal music players of a particular brand have a flaw. Of the player has the flaw, it dies in the first two months with a probability of 30%, in the first four months with a probability of 70%, and in the first six months with a probability of 100%. If the player DOES NOT have the flaw, however, it dies in the first two months with a probability of 0%, in the first four months with a probability of 5%, and in the first six months with a probability of 10%. The probability that it has the flaw is .