The Centers for disease Control and Prevention Office on Smoking and Health (OSH) is the lead federal agency responsible for comprehensive tobacco prevention and control. OSH was established in 1965 to reduce the death and disease caused by tobacco use and exposure to second-hand smoke. One of the many responsibilities of the OSH is to collect data on tobacco use. The following data show the percentage of adults in the United States who were users of tobacco from 2001 through 2011: Year Percentage of Adults Who Smoke
1 22.9
2 21.7
3 21
4 20.3
5 20.3
6 19.9
7 19.4
8 20.7
9 20.7
10 19
11 18.8
What type of pattern exists in the data?
Use simple linear regression analysis to find the parameters for the line that minimizes MSE for this time series.
One of OSH’s goals is to cut the percentage of U. S. adults who were users of tobacco to 12% or less within nine years of the last year of these data. Does your regression model suggest that OSH is on target to meet this goal?
Use your model to estimate the number of years that must pass after these data have been collected before OSH will achieve this goal.