Based on 2018 data, the probability that a randomly chosen woman
over 64 years of age is divorced is about
0.14. This probability is a long-run proportion
based on all the millions of women over 64.
Let's suppose that the proportion stays at
0.14 for the next 45 years. Bridget is now 20
years old and is not married.

(a) Bridget thinks her own chances of being
divorced after age 64 are about 5%.
Explain why this is a personal probability.

(b) Give some good reasons Bridget's personal
probability might differ from the proportion
of all women over 64 who are divorced.

(c) You are a government official charged with
looking into the impact of the Social Secu-
rity system on retirement-aged divorced
women. You care only about the proba-
bility 0.14, not about anyone's personal
probability. Why?