Suppose you are the only income earner in the family, and you have a good job guaranteed to give you your current income every year for life. you are given the opportunity to take a new, equally good job. with a 50% chance it will double your income, and with a 50% chance, it will cut your income by 20%. would you take the new job?

Ascientist successfully predicts the outcome of an experiment. you watch carefully and know he didn't cheat. the scientist's success shows that: a) the scientist knows absolute truth about this experiment; success is not possible unless you know the truthb) the scientist was just lucky; no one ever knows what's going on, so successful predictions require luckc) the scientist may know the truth, or at least know something that is close to the truth, or the scientist may have gotten lucky this time; you can't be absolutely sured) the scientist really was cheating, even though you didn't see the cheating; no one can get things right, except by cheatinge) the scientist spent the night at a particular hotel chain and go a free breakfast, giving the scientist the ability to do amazing things