Dr. hunt has been teaching introductory psychology for 15 years. in each class, before the first lecture, she asks the students to fill out a short questionnaire in which they predict their major and note how confident they are in their prediction. she then keeps track of each student's major. over the years, she has found that about 45 percent of her students have correctly predicted their major but their confidence in this prediction has been about 75 percent on average. this tendency to be more confident than correct in predicting one's own behaviors illustrates a thinking error called: