"what are acceptable confidence levels for things like your car starting or your paycheck showing up on time? "

Acceptable confidence level will always be depended on several factors that might influence the outcome of that occurence.

But for those two scenarios above, te acceptable confidence level should be pretty high because they both could give impact to your life in a drastic manner (
car problems could lead to accident, late paycheck could lead to being thron out from your apartment)

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