What would be the likely impact if the United States escalates the trade conflict by imposing large tariffs on products that are made in China but are most often purchased by middle-income households and businesses in the United States

Total Impact of Imposed and Announced Tariffs
If all tariffs announced thus far were fully imposed by the United States and foreign jurisdictions, U.S. GDP would fall by 0.51 percent ($127.21 billion) in the long run. Wages would fall by 0.35 percent and employment would fall by 394,300.