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Mathematics, 03.11.2020 16:40 phillipmccormick
During the 2010 World Cup tournament, Paul the Octopus (in a German aquarium) became famous for correctly predicting the winner in all 8 games it was asked to predict. (Two containers of food were lowered into Paul’s tank, each with a flag of the opposing teams. He made a selection by choosing which container to eat from. Is this evidence that Paul has psychic powers and can choose correctly more than half the time? State the null and alternative hypotheses: What is Paul’s sample proportion? We want to see how unlikely it is to have an 8 for 8 record if Paul is just randomly guessing. We can simulate this with a coin! Each coin flip represents a guess between two teams, with "heads" standing for a correct guess and "tails" for incorrect. Why does this method work for assuming the null hypothesis is true?
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